• WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks — over 61.5 receiving yards (-110): Despite some struggles last week, Metcalf has put together a fantastic start to the season. The sixth-year player has scored 42 goals this season – a top-10 figure in his position – giving him the potential to produce at a high level.
• QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers – over 250.5 passing yards (-115): The young passer currently claims the third-highest PFF passing grade (84.0) in the league and has managed to surpass that mark in three of his last four games.
• 2024 entry: 11-13 (45.8%) – -2.14 units won.
• Unleash your benefits with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our seasonal fantasy tools, including weekly ratings, WR/CB Matchup Schedules, weekly forecasts, Start-squat optimizer and much more. Register now!
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Game review
Week 6 begins with a highly anticipated matchup between NFC West division rivals. Seattle is in first place in the division and hosts the defending NFC champion 49ers.
While both of these franchises have strong squads, that doesn’t translate into very good results in the betting market as both teams combine to score just three times in 10 matches. San Francisco has been picking up points every week to start the season, and it’s especially difficult for them to be favorites on the road, currently sitting at 0-2 against the spread. On the other hand, the Seahawks are 0-2 against the spread in their last two games.
Both teams are seven-point favorites after home losses, with Seattle losing to the Giants by nine points and San Francisco coming off a late field goal in Arizona.
The 49ers’ red zone woes are the talk of the town again this week after another disappointing performance. Against the Cardinals last week, the team managed to get into the red zone six times but came away with just one touchdown. The 49ers have the fifth-highest red zone touchdown percentage in the league (40.9%) despite the highest average red zone snaps per game (14.2) in the NFL.
That could be a problem against a Seahawks defense that seems to tighten up when backed inside its own 20-yard line. Despite allowing the second-most red zone runs (20), Seattle’s red zone touchdown rate was down just 45%, a top-10 rate among defenses. And most of that damage came in one game, on the road against Detroit.
However, there have been better matchups in Seattle that back up that number a bit. While the 49ers are struggling a bit, they are undoubtedly one of the most talented offenses the Seahawks will face this season.
WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks: Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110) – Variable edge PFF Greenline
Despite some struggles last week, Metcalf has put together a fantastic start to the season. The sixth-year wide receiver has 42 targets, a top-10 mark at the position, which puts him on track to produce at a high level. Metcalf has racked up more than 100 receiving yards in three of his last four games, ranking him in the top 25 in yards per route among receivers.
Metcalf will be guarded by a 49ers quarterback. Chavarius Wardwho has to make up for lost time after a difficult start to the year. Over the last three games, Ward has only a 43.2 PFF coverage grade, ranking 92nd out of 99 qualifying cornerbacks.
In previous matchups between the two, Ward has typically gotten the better of Metcalf, but this looks like the Seahawks wide receiver’s chance to reverse that trend. As well as his difficulties on the pitch, Ward is also suffering from a knee injury which has limited his training this week. Considering how Ward won this match with his fitness, the injury that hampered him could make repeating this much more of a challenge.
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: Over 250.5 passing yards (-115) – 0.8% PFF Greenline Edge
While the 49ers have questions about their offensive efficiency, Purdy has played well through his first five games. The young passer currently boasts the third-highest PFF passing grade (84.0) in the league and has managed to surpass that mark in three of his last four games.
Part of that is because the 49ers have been playing well in pass protection, especially in the last two games. Through weeks four and five, San Francisco’s pass defense ranked eighth in the team in pass blocking rating (76.3), giving up zero sacks and ranking in the top 10 in pass blocking efficiency (85.4).
That could be a problem for Seattle, whose performance has slumped as of late. Through the first three games, the Seahawks have produced the most pressures (70) in the NFL. But they have the fifth-fewest totals over the last two weeks.
Without pressure, Purdy will have to analyze a secondary that may be left without a defender. Rick Woolen (ankle), leaving the defender Tre Brown (PFF coverage grade of 41.8 over the last three games) in a difficult situation.
Leave a comment