• James Madison is the favorite: The Dukes are 5-1 thanks to ace QB Alonze Barnett III.
• Ashton Jeanty promotes Boise State: The Broncos are the only team in Group 5 and they are still dangerous with the Heisman leading the way.
• Unleash your benefits with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our seasonal fantasy tools, including weekly ratings, WR/CB Matchup Schedules, weekly forecasts, Launch and squat optimizer and much more. Register now!
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
There have already been some fascinating stories surrounding the College Football Playoff race. The battle for a spot in or just outside the Group of Five playoffs will be tight for the remainder of the regular season.
Here we take a quick look at the top contenders for the Group of Five playoffs around the midway point of the season.
*Playoff percentage based on PFF Power Rating.
James Madison Dukes
Record: 5-1
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 37%
Key games left: vs. Coastal Carolina; @ Appalachian State
Let’s start with James Madison, who played incredibly well until he almost lost Louisiana-Monroe last week. The Dukes still have a chance to make the playoffs with an impressive win over North Carolina on their resumes and the rest of the Sun Belt competitive schedule ahead of them.
Key to the Dukes’ success has been the outstanding play of freshman starting guard Alonza Barnett III and an outstanding coverage service that currently ranks ninth in the country in coverage. If they can win, they may be able to avenge their only loss in the Sun Belt title game.
Boise State Broncos
Record: 4-1
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 16%
Remaining key games: @ UNLV@ San Jose Stateagainst. Oregon State
No matter what the percentages say, the Broncos currently have the clearest path to the playoffs. They are already the only Group of Five team ranked in the top 25 of the AP poll, and their only loss came on a last-second third-down field goal. Oregon. Running the table in the extremely competitive Mountain West would all but guarantee their selection by the CFP committee.
Boise State, of course, is led by superstar running back Ashton Ginty, who continues to perform well. almost record pace. If his defense can survive games against teams like UNLV And Oregon StateJeanty could take them to the promised land.
Tulane Green Wave
Record: 4-2
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 15%
Remaining key games: @ North Texas@ Navalagainst. Memphis
Redshirt freshman guard Darian Mensah has excelled for the Green Wave as John Sumrall pushes for a playoff berth in his first year as Tulane’s head coach. They played reasonably well against Power Five opponents. Kansas And Oklahoma but in no case could he emerge victorious.
However, Tulane has several big games remaining on its schedule against teams such as North Texas, Naval And Memphisso he will have opportunities to gain a foothold in the playoff race. Mensah and star running back Mahi Hughes led a lethal attack that averaged over 40 points per game. If they continue to assert this level of dominance the rest of the way, they have a real chance of making the playoffs.
Texas State Bobcats
Record: 3-2
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 12%
Key games left: vs. Louisiana@ Louisiana-Monroe
Having two losses on your resume is tough, but the Bobcats have a high-performing offense led by former James Madison guard Jordan McClaws. Both of those defeats were by three points or less, and one of them came to a resurgent Arizona a team that is currently 4-1.
Texas State would have to run the table, but games against Louisiana And Louisiana-Monroe stand out as opportunities for redemption. The Bobcats could also see a very good team like Coastal Carolina or James Madison in the Sun Belt title game.
Flame of Freedom
Record: 5-0
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 7%
Key games left: vs. Western Kentucky@ Sam Houston State
Given a relatively weak Conference USA schedule, the Liberty may be the most likely team to go undefeated this season. Quarterback Kaydon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley form the most dynamic duo in the conference.
The Flames’ problem is a very simple schedule where the best team they can play is Sam Houston State. They also lost the opportunity to play a non-conference game against Appalachian State it was canceled due to Hurricane Helen. The Liberty will likely need help elsewhere to make the playoffs even if they finish the season undefeated.
Toledo Rockets
Record: 4-1
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 7%
Remaining key games: @ Northern Illinois@ Eastern Michigan
Toledo is an odd case as it dominated an SEC opponent in Mississippiand then lost the next week Western Kentucky. When the Rockets have struggled, it has been due to a pass defense unit that is currently ranked fourth worst in the country.
The MAC provides an opportunity to get some good wins over teams like Northern Illinois And Eastern Michiganbut Toledo will likely have to dominate the rest of the way to be seriously considered for one of the 12 playoff spots.
Army of Black Knights
Record: 5-0
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 4%
Remaining key games: @ North Texasagainst. Our Lady
The Black Knights have so far defeated their opponents with their triple attack. They have outscored their opponents 194-49, and quarterback Bryson Daley is the third-highest-rated starting quarterback in the FBS.
There are several challenges to predicting Army’s playoff chances. First, the team faces Our Lady at Yankee Stadium in late November. A win could put the Black Knights in prime contention in the playoffs. Secondly, they don’t play Navalwho is also currently unbeaten until the selection committee makes their choice. However, it is possible that Army will see its arch-rival in the American Athletic Conference title game. It will be interesting to watch the development of academic schools.
Navy midshipmen
Record: 5-0
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 4%
Key games left: vs. Our Ladyagainst. Tulane
The situation in the Navy is strikingly similar to the situation in the Army. The midshipmen are currently invincible. They dominated their opposition. Their quarterback, Blake Horvat, is currently the top starting quarterback in the FBS. The Midshipmen also boast the fifth-ranked defense in the FBS, so it was a balanced effort.
Similar to: Armytheir playoff chances would be greatly enhanced with an upset win over Our Ladywhom they will play in a few weeks at MetLife Stadium. Even if Navy doesn’t get the job done, a late-season win over Tulane and a win in the American title game could make the Midshipmen seriously think about making the playoffs.
North Texas, medium green
Record: 4-1
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 4%
Remaining key games: @ Memphisagainst. Tulaneagainst. Army
The Mean Greens won’t have the advantage of beating the Power Five as they were dominated in September Texas Tech. However, they won their first conference game and have the opportunity to bounce back against good opponents like Tulane, Memphis And Army.
As usual, North Texas has a strong passing attack. This season, the team is led by former TCU starter Chandler Morris, who currently has the seventh-best passing grade in the FBS. If the Mean Greens can improve their trench play in the tougher part of their American schedule, they still have a chance to prove they are worthy of a playoff spot.
Memphis Tigers
Record: 4-1
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 4%
Key games left: vs. North Texas@ Tulane
The Tigers were one of the preseason favorites to make the playoffs. They strengthened their position with victory at Floridabut subsequent loss Naval confuses their chances a bit. Memphis has a chance to bounce back, but it will require wins over other opponents. North Texas And Tulane.
The Tigers will need more production from quarterback Seth Henigan, who has a passing grade of just 65.8 since Week 2. However, Memphis is a balanced team and should continue to bounce back from their previous loss.
UNLV Rebels
Record: 4-1
Chance of reaching the playoffs: 3%
Remaining key games: @ Oregon Stateagainst. Boise State@ San Jose State
With wins over two Big 12 opponents, a narrow loss to Syracuse and the departure of starting guard Matthew Sluka, UNLV has been one of the most exciting stories of the season. If the Rebels can overcome a tough Mountain West schedule, including a matchup with Boise Statethey may be the most likely team in this group to make the playoffs.
In their favor, defenseman Haj-Malik Williams has played very well since Sluka’s departure. Star receiver Ricky White is also starting to find his rhythm after a slow start. We’ll find out everything we need to know about the Rebels after their October matches against Oregon State And Boise State.
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