• VR Darius Slayton, New York Giants — more than 49.5 receiving/outgoing yards: Malik Nabers (concussion) is out for the second week in a row, so Killton once again he is expected to carry the load in the passing game.
• 2024 record – 12-14 (46.1%); -2.27 units won: Thursday night’s game ended 1-1 in a high-scoring matchup with the Niners’ quarterback. Brock Purdy just squeezed his passing line for 250.5 yards and the Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf failed to top 61.5 receiving yards.
• Unleash your benefits with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our seasonal fantasy tools, including weekly ratings, WR/CB Matchup Schedules, weekly forecasts, Launch and squat optimizer and much more. Register now!
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Game review
The bright lights of Sunday Night Football shine on a pair of teams that haven’t had many wins but are starting to find their own identity.
The Bengals have struggled to cover the spread consistently (2-3 record) in 2024, which could be a problem for this Giants team that has had three straight games, including a pair of blowout wins on the road. However, Cincinnati will be motivated after losing a close overtime game against the Ravens last week that they could have easily won.
The games in Cincinnati brought us a lot of points as Zac Taylor’s offense picks up steam. At the same time, the team’s defense is regularly attacked, resulting in a total of four overs in a row per game. Since Week 3, the Bengals have the third-lowest EPA per play on offense and lowest EPA per play on defense.
Most of the offensive credit goes to the electric tandem. Joe Burrow And Ja’Marr Chaseand the duo have been on tears for the last three games. Burrow ranks third in the NFL in PFF passer rating during that span, with the most touchdown passes (10) and an impressive 6-to-1 ratio in scoring throws to scoring plays. His top target, Chase, has put up incredible numbers over the last three games, highlighted by league-best marks in receiving yardage (396), yards per run (3.47) and catches of 15-plus yards (10). ) – for a total of 24 targets.
Week 6 will mark the sixth straight game in 2024 in which oddsmakers have given the Giants points, despite recent success. New York has improved on both sides of the ball, which has contributed to this surge. It’s a shame Daniel Jones and the pass rush went from bottom eight in passer EPA rating (-0.191) in the first two games to top 10 (0.125) starting in week three.
It’s easy to point to the freshman receiver’s breakthrough. Malik Nabers, who will miss this week is the main reason for this promotion, which is understandable given his incredible start. But that trend continued last week without Nabers in the lineup, as the Giants posted their highest EPA per pass in a single game of the year against Seattle.
In addition to their offensive numbers, the Giants’ defense also deserves its colors. The unit has a top-five overall team defensive rating (73.6) and EPA per play allowed in the last three games. The pass rush has recorded the most sacks (20) and the second-most total pressures (68) during that span. However, New York will have to struggle without the help of its third-year guard. Kayvon Thibodeau (wrist), who was placed on injured reserve.
WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants: Over 49.5 yards receiving/rushing (-115) – 1.8% PFF Greenline Edge
Rookie Malik Nabers (concussion) missing for the second week in a row, so attention turns back to Darius Slayton to carry the load again in the passing game. Without Nabers in the lineup, Slayton put up strong production last week with eight receptions on 11 targets for 122 yards and one score. He was equally impressive in terms of advanced metrics, with three contested catches and three receptions for 15-plus yards, en route to a 139.2 passer rating on target.
Slayton is in a much better matchup this week against a Bengals coverage unit that has struggled to find its footing in recent weeks. Over the last three games, Cincinnati has allowed just 42.6 team coverage points (29th), given up 0.356 EPA per tackle (30th) and missed an open target on 65.7% of its attempts (28th). All of these grades directly contribute to the second-lowest defensive pass success rate (37.2%) since Week 3.
Leave a comment