NFL Week 12 Betting: Midweek Market Updates

• Let us help you understand market movements: This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• Browns-Steelers Thursday Night Football Betting: Sell ​​the lower price and buy the upper price at 36.5. While unfavorable weather usually supports a decline, this adjustment appears to be an overreaction without fully considering the situation.

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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market recap.

This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injuries, weather conditions and failure of public choice can affect the line’s movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE GAME:

YAMA@KLE | TEN@HOU | NOT@MY | DET@IND | MIN@CHI | KS@KAR
TB@New York | DAL@BAS | DEN@LV | ARI@SEA | SF@GB
FI@LAR | BAL@LAK

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Spreading: This game started at 3.5, briefly moved to 4.5, but has since returned to the starting number.

General: After an initial move down to 38.5, the release of the peak brought the overall reading down further to 35.5. However, resistance at this level suggests that the market is hesitant to fall further. Wind and rain are expected to impact this line Thursday evening.

Buy/Sell: I sell the lower price and buy the upper price at 36.5. While unfavorable weather usually supports a decline, this adjustment appears to be an overreaction without fully considering the situation. The opening forecast has already been factored into the forecast to some extent, and reports on wind strength are mixed. If the forecast improves, this figure could rise by one or two points before kickoff.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Spreading: The line opened at 7 and has since moved to 7.5 or 8 across the market. Strong play on Monday Night Football has contributed to the move away from the key number of 7. I expect it to stabilize at its current level before kickoff.

General: After some early testing at the 42 and 42.5 levels, the total has returned to its initial value of 41. So far, no book has dropped below this key indicator, indicating balanced action at this level.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Spreading: After the opener, drop the mark from 7.5 to 7, pushing the Dolphins outside the teaser range of the lead. There are 7 in all directions.

General: More money has appeared, passing through the key number 45 and up to 46. There are still a few 45.5.

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Spreading: Open on the other side of number 7 from the predicted number, other than that there is little traffic. Some books were at 8 for a while, but we’re back to 7.5 across the board.

General: Sustained action saw the figure rise to 51 before stabilizing again at 50.5.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Spreading: The spread has fluctuated between 3 and 3.5 several times, but 3.5 is becoming more common. Some books still give the Vikings a value of -3, but you’ll have to put in extra effort to get that number.

General: After initially returning to the forecast figure of 40, the total fell below the initial value of 39.5. At the moment most books show 39.

Buy/Sell: I buy the dip and take the price below 39.5. Some market-leading books are already at or below this level, and I expect it to hold below 39.5 as we get closer to the start of the day.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

Spreading: The market is mostly 11 across the board, but there are still a few 10.5 readings remaining. I don’t see a world in which this number reaches 10, and it will likely close around where it is now.

General: After the release of the peak, this amount increased from 41.5 to 43. Some resistance was encountered at the 43 level.

Situational factors: The Panthers are coming off their bye week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Spreading: News Daniel Jones be on the bench for Tommy DeVito increased this value to version 5.5, where it is present across the board. One book made it to 6 before the Giants were bought out.

General: We are starting to see some reaction to the QB change. This amount was originally 43 before the news broke. This means it is not done yet. Wind is possible here.

Buy/Sell: I will buy less and lock in under 41.5 at a price of -105, which is better than under 42 at the standard price of -110. This price sensitivity increases over time, causing your bankroll to increase. If you take the wind into account, it should continue to fall.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington commanders

Spreading: After Dallas’ poor showing on Monday Night Football, it reopened at 11. The Cowboys’ support has since pushed it back up to 10. The market is fairly split between 10 and 10.5.

General: The market reacted to the results it saw on Cooper Rush and the Cowboys offense opened 1.5 points lower on Monday.

Situational factors: The Commanders, who played on Thursday with extra rest, have the advantage. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are on a short rest.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spreading: It initially moved from 4 to 5 and we see some 5.5s on the surface. I expect it to keep moving, but it will most likely stop somewhere around there.

General: Since opening at 39.5, the market has split between 41 and 41.5. I don’t think it will get much higher than it is now.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the Broncos at -5. This one should close at -6 or higher.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Spreading: It’s a real toss-up here, and you won’t see this move go much beyond the point in either direction.

General: The market feels like it has figured this out as there is almost no movement.

Situational factors: The Cardinals are coming off a bye week.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Spreading: On a one-way play, this spread comes close to a field goal, although I really don’t think it will ever get there. If this happens, there will be an immediate redemption of SF +3.

General: It reached 48 (which was not exactly the forecast number) and then dropped back to 47.5. It’s basically 47.5 across the board.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

Spreading: On Monday morning, that figure increased to 3, with some books falling back to 2.5. You will need to put extra effort into any team with a better number, as that team should close with theoretical odds of 2.75.

General: After the release of the peak, this figure rose to 51 and then fell again to 49.5. After that, the release of the opponent’s choice brought it back almost to the starting number. Given the opposing forces, I expect the price to close between 48.5 and 49.

Situational factors: The Rams have a slight advantage as the Eagles head to the West Coast.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Spreading: The Chargers host another AFC North team in prime time this week, but this time they are the bigger underdog as they got to Baltimore on a field goal. I fully expect this to close at 3.

General: Nothing but money: Bring it up to 51 and then back down to 50. We’re looking at some 49.5 now. We cashed an over last week in almost the same situation. I liked it on the first issue too, but with the three-point adjustment already built in, I can’t commit.

Situational factors: The Chargers have a slight lead, and the Ravens are flying to the opposite side.