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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, players and analysts often rely on a wide range of statistics and models to gain a competitive advantage. These range from basic scoring statistics to advanced metrics available in PFF 2.0 Premium Statistics and models such as Josh HersmeierBuy Low and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) model.
There is always room for new ideas and analysis to help bettors and fantasy managers improve their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that has several advantages over WOPR. Click here for a detailed explanation of the model, my process and its benefits.
Week 11 results
Week 11 results were a mix of ups and downs. Jameson Williams And Jauan Jennings This model has achieved outstanding success, but few others have demonstrated exceptional results.
As I noted in last week’s “Coach, I Was Open” review, Caleb Williams continues to struggle with selecting optimal recipients, a trend that continued into week 11.
Boutte saw targets for the fourth game in a row but was unable to get the full result.
Jaylen Waddle is still stuck in a rut and may never eclipse 8.0 fantasy points again.
Calvin Austin III had one deep goal, but could not achieve it. However, identifying the top two receivers out of eight is a solid result in my book.
BREAKTHROUGH CANDIDATES: WEEK 12
As a quick reminder of how mean regression models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a more reliable indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the remainder by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a balance of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to spawn until one of the following events occurs:
- They will realize their PWOPR potential in the big game.
- Their PWOPR decreases to the level of expected FPpG.
As is common with regression to the mean models, some players tend to reappear for various reasons, such as poor quarterback play or general offensive struggles.
Particularly in this model, having an alpha wide receiver (or tight end) can push other players onto the roster. Take DeVonta SmithFor example. WITH AJ Brown Because he’s the center of the Eagles’ passing attack, every target given to Brown—whether it’s a good decision or not—is one less opportunity for Smith, even if he’s open and ready to make the play.
Now let’s look at some of the names from the Week 12 list:
Keenan Allen And DJ Moore: Tandem “Bears” back on the list. Allen has averaged eight targets per week over the past three weeks, while Moore has averaged 7.3. Both are solid numbers, but the Bears’ passing attack has been lackluster, to say the least. This week the Bears take on the Vikings, who ranked first in the NFL in MOFO (middle of the field open) over the past month but have the ninth-worst PFF team coverage grade over that same period. This is an above average matchup for most wide receivers, but:
- Williams’ PFF base passing grade is 61.4 (32nd).nd out of 40 in the NFL (min. 100 dropbacks)
- Williams’ score drops to 54.4 against MOFO, which ranks 29th.th of 29 quarterbacks (minimum 100 dropbacks vs. MOFO)
DeVonta Smith: The Eagles wide receiver faces a fairly average defensive game against the Rams this week. The Rams rank in the middle of the pack in most defensive metrics and use roughly equal amounts of MOFO and MOFC coverages. However, FantasyPros ranks them as a top-six wide receiver rivalry in fantasy points allowed, which bodes well for Smith and his teammate. AJ Brown.
Romeo Dubs: The Dubs will play against the 49ers, a team that often allows single-coverage situations. Dubs leads Packers in target share against single coveragewhich suggests breakthrough potential.
Michael Pittman Jr.: The Colts will take on the Lions, who are coming off a convincing win over the Jaguars. This could benefit Pittman in fantasy, as Indianapolis could spend most of the game trailing—DraftKings lists the Colts as 7.5-point underdogs. While the Lions provide plenty of one-man coverage opportunities, Pittman has struggled in those situations this season, having a PFF grade in the 25th percentile against those looks. However, volume is critical in fantasy, and a game scenario in which the Colts play from behind could provide ample opportunity for Pittman.
Kayshawn Boutte: The Patriots have hit their targets consistently, hitting six in each of their last four games. Butt excels in men’s match coverage, posting grades in the 70th percentile or better in those situations.
Noah Brown
Brown faces a depleted Cowboys defense in a game where the Commanders are heavily favored, with Washington a 10.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings. Over the past month, the Cowboys ranked eighth in the NFL in MOFO coverage while earning the fifth-worst team grade in PFF coverage. Brown has the third-most targets in Washington against MOFO, but only the sixth-most PFF grade against those looks.
Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert represents the Cowboys’ side in their matchup against the Commanders. Dallas will likely adopt a pass-heavy game plan. As seen in Week 11, the Cowboys won’t hesitate to throw the ball 50 times if necessary.
Calvin Austin III: Austin opened confidently, but the Steelers’ offense took the first down and George Pickens‘ The heavy target share limits its capabilities. However, the Browns may give Austin a chance to shine. Cleveland has PFF’s third-worst team coverage grade over the past month and MOFC’s fifth-worst coverage rate over that period.
Tre Tucker: Tucker, who appears frequently on this list, posted 90% of the stock last week and has consistently shown an ability to get open. Despite this, a breakthrough seems unlikely because Jacob Meyers And Brock Bowers commanding most of the Raiders’ offense.
Route heroes of last week who were at the farewell:
Malik Nabers: Newbie will get a new quarterback, for better or worse, and will be involved in a game in which the Giants may have to pass the ball quite often. New York trails Tampa Bay by 5.5 points, according to DraftKings.
Michael Wilson: Wilson paints a good single-coverage situationbut as we discussed earlier, the lack of overall volume of passages will be a problem for fantasy success.
As always, not every player on this list will produce, but several will likely exceed their PPR average over the last three weeks. Some may even have explosive games.
For more NFL statistics and analysis, Follow Joseph on Twitter/X.
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