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2024 NFL Thanksgiving Games of the same name

Same Game Parlays (SGP) allow you to combine multiple bets from the same game into one, increasing your potential payout.

Our SGP picks are based on specific game narratives that the data shows are likely to unfold, taking into account how key players and matchups could impact the outcome.

Here are our top AKP picks for this week based on this data.

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Tim Patrick Burns Bears Deep landing protection

Coming off the bye week, the Bears defense has struggled mightily with explosive play, allowing an explosive pass percentage of 10%, fourth-worst in the NFL over that period.

Enter Tim Patrickis now the undisputed WR3 for the Lions, with Khalif Raymond left the game due to injury. Patrick thrived in this dangerous role in Detroit’s offense.

Another point in Patrick’s favor is that he will likely run most of his routes against Tyreke Stevenson, who has been one of the most vulnerable cornerbacks in football this season.

While the market seems to price Patrick’s success as more likely in a game where the Lions control and cover the spread, I’d argue it’s more likely in tougher competition. In a tighter game scenario, the Lions are more likely to remain aggressive in the air rather than switch to a ground-based approach. This scenario creates an inverse correlation with Patrick’s chances of scoring a touchdown at any point, making his play even more attractive.

SGP build: 90-1 on Draft Kings

Keenan Allen he’s having a big day working on the Lions’ coverage and slot defenders

The Lions lead the NFL in man coverage usage, using it on nearly 45% of their defensive snaps.

Keenan Allen was Bears‘ an ideal target against man coverage, having a dominant target share of 27%, with no other receiver on the team exceeding 20%. This is probably due to the fact that Allen was the only Bears a receiver with above-average separation relative to the human coverage area.

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