NFL Week 14 Betting: Midweek Market Updates

• Let us help you understand market movements: This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• Bet on Monday Night Football: WITHLearn about the move to more and buy less at 49.5.

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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market recap.

This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injuries, weather conditions and failure of public choice can affect the line’s movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to go to the game:

GB@DET | ATL@MIN | NO@NYG | JAX@TEN | LV@TB |
KLE@PEET | CAR@FI | New York @MIA| SEA@ARI |
BUF@LAR | CHI@SF | LAC@KS | KIN@DAL

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Spreading: The one-sided action resulted in the field goal spread being nearly even. After opening at 4, one point below the forecast line, the market is now split between 3 and 3.5.

General: A minute after the opening, that total passed 51, but this is the highest figure that has been achieved. I don’t see a significant deviation from this figure until Thursday evening.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Spreading: This figure was initially reduced to 4.5 and then increased again to 5.5, but did not quite return to its original value. There were some demands Michael Penix Jr. How Falcons lost 3 in a row. If Falcons The offense looks shaky to begin with, there’s a chance we’ll see a turnaround despite Raheem Morris telling us otherwise.

General: An adjustment up one point to 45, but a full point below the forecast number. Falcons played for the team in the last four games and five of the previous six.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the over and lock it in at 45.5. I will buy at a price that seems to me to be somewhat low, considering Falcons‘latest results. I expect Atlanta to pick up the pace, and even if there is a quarterback change, it will likely be the result of a few trades early on. — which is good for completion. I’d look for some live overs if Penix does come, as we saw his willingness to push the ball down the field in Washington last year.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

Spreading: This week the number has fluctuated between 4 and 5, but the trend points to New Orleans dropping to -5. It remains to be seen who will start at QB for the season. Giants. Even if Tommy Devito healthy, Brian Daboll acted like he’d seen enough Drew Lock stick with him.

General: It’s generally a similar story, with him hovering between 40 and 41 most of the week. We haven’t seen anything above 41 yet. If Lock is announced as the starter, I think he’ll hit 41.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Spreading: This line opened up nicely on the other side of the field goal. Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion. Considering how Mac Jones I looked with relief: the rate was quickly reduced to 3.5. There are still fours there.

General: The four-point drop in the overall score also reflects Lawrence’s absence. There has been little movement since opening.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spreading: There was a one point drop to 7 from forward guidance and another drop to below that number after the open. The market is fairly divided, with most books rated 6.5.

General: The total remained within one point of 46, first falling and then stabilizing at that level.

Situational factors: Raiders have a slight holiday advantage by playing on Black Friday, but they will also have to travel around the country.

Buy/Sell: I will sell the mechanism for Raiders and fix the Bux at -6.5. While most books are rated 6.5, some marketable books are held at 7. This feels like an overreaction to an almost overtime loss Pantherswhose performance on the field lately is better than their perception.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spreading: This is another game where the market is split between 6.5 and 7, with the market books hanging on to the key number 7. I’m willing to bet that we see less snow than we did in this matchup. weeks ago.

General: The total reopened 1.5 points higher than Sunday. After BrownsThe Denver offense exploded on Monday Night Football, scoring one more point to 44.

Buy/Sell: It’s ironic considering what we saw in their last game, but it’s the perfect storm to create value on the under. I will fix it at 44 and expect a close below. Last week, both teams scored 82 and 73 points in games, respectively. Their last matchup in Week 12 also ended in a touchdown. However, if you pay attention, you will realize that the accumulation of snow on the field helped end the game. Only 16 points were scored through nearly three quarters before the snow really started to melt.

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spreading: Half a point adjustment to 12.5 from the initial 13. Nothing more.

General: It’s a similar story with the overall count: we’ve seen some books rise to 45.5, but haven’t seen anything significant below or above 46 yet.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Spreading: Miami hit 6.5 and then moved back down to 6. We’re seeing some movement towards 6.5.

General: The initial move took the total higher to 46 before the release of the peak brought it back to the opening number of 44.5. There are still 45s there.

Situational factors: After the game on Thanksgiving Day Dolphins have a slight advantage in rest.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Spreading: Seattle’s money lowered that figure to 2.5. Several books received only 2; at this stage we saw some support Cardinals.

General: With a deviation of two points from the forecast line, this amount reached 44, and then rose again to 44.5. In all directions there is nothing but 44.5.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams

Spreading: Zero moves outside of the range of 4 and 5. Given how these two teams have performed lately, I don’t expect to see many more changes heading into the game.

General: Despite opening at 48, consensus was quickly reached at 49 within minutes of the open. We’re starting to see some books hitting the 49.5 level.

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Spreading: A significant drop from the forecast line: three points below the initial reading of 3.5. This was largely due to the injury report in San Francisco. There was a crossover into SF-4, but we haven’t seen any book surpass that number yet. Something has to give as these two teams have combined for nine straight losses.

General: Some support appeared after a point opened below the forecast line. Currently you can get half a point either way from 44. I expect 43.5 won’t last long.

Situational factors: The benefits of rest for Bears outside of Thanksgiving and 49ers playing Sunday Night Football.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spreading: The initial move led to a field goal and it stayed there for about 90 minutes before the release of the pick helped trigger a move back up past the starting point to 4. Given the market reaction to -3, this is a close between 3.5 and 4.

General: This number peaked at 44.5 and then dropped back to 43. We are now separated and appear to be heading towards 42.5. I can’t imagine it getting much lower than that.

Situational factors: Managers have a slight holiday advantage by playing on Black Friday. Chargers play their second game in a row on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

Spreading: Up to 6 and then back up to 5.5. Now there are also several fives there.

General: After the opening we saw a two point adjustment to the over quite quickly. Monday morning’s release of the pick pushed that figure up another 1.5 points to 50 and even 50.5 in several books.

Situational factors: An additional benefit of relaxation for Cowboys playing on Thanksgiving Day.

Buy/Sell: I will sell the move higher and buy lower at 49.5. We are on the right side of the key number: 3 points above the initial opening. This is probably due to the offensive pressure we saw in BengalsWeek 13 game, but I’m not sure this Dallas offense can take advantage Bengals protection in the same spirit.