• Will the Lions’ passing game be as strong against the Vikings? If Detroit wants to maintain first place, it will need to maintain its effectiveness against a Minnesota defense that defends play-action well.
• How will it be Carson Wentz cope with the blitz? The Broncos have posted the third-worst rushing offense this year, but Wentz excelled against extra rushers in his last start.
• The 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Experience the best in class from PFF Draft mock simulator and learn about Main prospects for 2025 while trading and drafting for his favorite NFL team.
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
While the outcome of each football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team, niche battles on a micro level add an extra layer of nuance. This includes players or units fighting each other, or even defensive coaches trying to outsmart the opposing defender.
Before a short vacation break, Week 16 goal on Jayden Daniels under pressure (PFF overall grade of 70.4, two perfect throws) and Steelers tight ends vs. Ravens (six targets for 20 yards) played a major role in determining which teams won two weeks ago. While fewer teams are playing on purpose in Week 18, there are still elements in each matchup that could determine whether upsets keep opponents from making the postseason.
Whether it’s strength versus strength, weakness versus weakness, or just an individual war with big consequences, here are six matchups with a significant chance of determining winners this week.
Lions‘passing the game-actions against. Vikings
The centerpiece of Week 18 is Vikings-Lions on Sunday Night Football, which effectively brings the series full circle with the first edition of the “matchups” being discussed. Jared GoffGame against the blitz in week seven. Goff will certainly have to get the ball out quickly again under pressure, but another aspect to watch is Detroit’s playmaking.
The Lions have actually been the best playing team in the NFL all year. Detroit ranks first in run rate and EPA per game, not to mention second in team offensive rating. Additionally, Goff’s 88.1 passing grade ranks sixth among qualifiers.
However, Minnesota is equally stingy with game imagery. The Vikings slot ranks second in EPA per play and in-game action success rate. At the same time, coverage of the team’s game actions was not so effective: only 17 places.th. Defenseman Brian Flores also had a poor performance in the game, scoring just 22 goals.nd-best bag speed.
In the first matchup between these powerhouse teams, the Lions ran play-action plays 11 times for 11 yards per play and a 54.5% success rate. Likewise, Goff recorded a 72.6 PFF passing grade, a scoreless turnover-worthy game and no sacks against the Vikings.
If Detroit’s passing game continues to pick up steam, it should allow the Lions to keep pace with Minnesota’s potent offense in the shootout – but if not, the Vikings could easily seize first place in the NFC.
Bengals‘ RPO violation vs. Steelers
Saturday’s matchup between the Bengals and Steelers pits a hot Cincinnati team against a strong Steelers team looking to course-correct heading into the playoffs. Watch how the Bengals use RPO in this case.
Pittsburgh’s defense was a legitimate liability during the team’s three-game skid, finishing 27th.th in EPA per game and 24th in the percentage of success allowed in this interval. Many of these issues arise from communications and coverage integrity where RPOs may fall prey to a department. The Steelers are ranked 29th.th based on RPO and EPA success rates per game this season. They’ve given up 14 total RPO first downs over the last three weeks, six more than the next closest team.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ fantastic offense hasn’t produced any significant offensive turnovers all year: 60 total (22)nd). Cincinnati isn’t particularly effective in concept either, with the Bengals ranking 31st.st. in RPO EPA per game, and Joe BurrowPFF’s 57.6 RPO passing grade is 34.th of 43 qualified defense attorneys. He attempted just 12 RPO throws all year.
Even though the Bengals played their normal rhythm against Pittsburgh in Week 13, Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher called only one RPO, relying more on the traditional passing game (which Burrow has excelled at all year). . Can Cincinnati’s offensive brain take advantage of Pittsburgh’s defensive weakness? And if so, can the Steelers make the necessary adjustments after nine days of rest?
Carson Wentz when the blitz is against. Broncos
While few of Sunday’s games have huge playoff implications, the game with the biggest implications is the late-window Chiefs-Broncos game. If the Broncos want to win and secure the final AFC playoff spot, they need to be careful with their blitz rankings. Carson Wentzwho is ready to start instead Patrick Mahomes.
Wentz has played just nine snaps this year, including three dropbacks. This gives a very limited sample size of what to expect from the former Philadelphia Eagle, but one can look to his most recent start in Week 18 of 2023 against the 49ers. Wentz has been great overall, especially in blitzes where he went 7-for-7 with an overall PFF grade of 90.9, one pass rush, zero turnover-worthy plays and only one sack.
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has reinvigorated the team’s defense, which ranked third in the NFL, but those calls haven’t always been favorable. The Broncos are ranked just 12th.th in EPA per game and 19th the success rate of sending extra rushers is both below what would be expected from a defense that has been solid for most of the year.
In a wild scramble in Week 17, Joe Burrow split up Denver’s blitz, completing 21 of 29 attempts, making two big throws, a scoreless turnover-worthy performance, and posting an overall 86.3 PFF grade on 31 dropbacks. Will Josef continue to attack Wentz, who has barely played in a year? And will this strategy pay off? If the Chiefs, with plenty of backups, end up pulling it off, Wentz’s performance against the blitz will likely be the main reason.
Jets‘out of zone vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins will compete especially hard for Wentz and the Chiefs, but they also need to take care of business on the road against the Jets. Mike McDaniel’s team needs to focus on New York’s outside zone offense.
Even though the Jets are ranked 26thth As a team, they were effective in the outside zone, which the offense turned into on 44% of attempts. The Jets rank sixth in EPA per game, seventh in scoring and 14th in command rank when implemented outside the zone. Rookie Braylon Allen takes 10th placeth among qualifying rushers with a PFF grade of 78.2 on these concepts, performing better than Brice Hall (63.4).
However, the Dolphins stopped playing outside the zone for most of the season. Miami ranks first in team defense, ninth in EPA per game, 10th by success rate and second in yards to contact per carry against the outside zone.
It’s a war to watch to see who wins the line of scrimmage because both teams have decisive advantages in every area. The Jets rank ninth in average yards per carry after contact outside the zone, while the Dolphins rank just 26th.th in this department. Meanwhile, in New York there are only 17th in yards to contact per carry.
If the Dolphins can get to Allen and Hall early, it will give them a good chance to win. But if not, the Jets might be able to derail Miami’s playoff hopes while keeping their chances alive.
Spencer Rattler throwing past sticks vs. pirates
If the Buccaneers defeat the beaten Saints, they will defend their fourth straight NFC South title. To do this, they need to make sure that their vulnerable defense can withstand Rattler’s resistance.
Tampa Bay’s coverage has been problematic all season, ranking 20th.th in the team category. This is especially true on throws off the sticks, where the Buccaneers are 26.th in EPA per game, 27th by success rate and 28th allowed in the passing rating.
Meanwhile, Rattler (51.3 PFF passing grade) didn’t perform well in his rookie season, including trying to get past the first-down mark. Rattler’s 69.1 PFF passing grade is 36 on shots off sticks.th of 43 qualified quarterbacks, and his turnover rate (8.6%) is the third-highest in the NFL.
Will Todd Bowles’ pressure overwhelm Rattler and keep him from attempting accurate throws downfield? Or will the rookie hold out and take advantage of a poor secondary on deeper attempts? In the first round of these opponents in Week 6, Rattler was 9 of 17 for 179 yards, one big catch, one turnover-worthy play and a 71.2 passer rating on throws off the sticks. If that’s the case, the Buccaneers could be in for a closer game than they’d like.
Michael Penix Jr. throwing out numbers vs. Panthers
The Falcons’ last gasp to make the playoffs came down to them beating the Panthers and Tampa Bay shockingly losing to the Saints, but never say never. Atlanta’s chances will improve even more if Penix gets better at his bread-and-butter passing strategy: outside the numbers.
Since his first NFL start in Week 16, Penix has attempted 41 runs beyond the numbers, third-most in the league during that span. This is not surprising, given that this approach worked wonders for him in college in Washington. What is unexpected, however, is that Penix is not very effective in these passages. Currently, his passing grade on shots outside the numbers is just 57.7, good for 29 points.th out of 32 qualifiers.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Panthers’ defense has been a mess all season. That extends to perimeter coverage, with Carolina ranking 26th.th in team coverage rankings and 29th In the passer rating, throws to the outfield are allowed. Midfielder Josie Jewell (who did not play in Week 17 and did not practice this week) is the only Panther in the top 100 qualified cornerbacks in outside-of-the-numbers coverage rankings.
Can Penix and Atlanta’s vertical threat playmakers find their footing outside of the hashes or Jaycee Horn and will Carolina’s defense show some growth in its final innings in 2024? Atlanta has a lot of ways to win this game, but taking advantage of these passing chances would help a lot.
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