• David Montgomery must find the end zone against the Bears: The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowed per rush and allow 4.4 yards per carry.
• Devon AchaneIts versatility makes it a good choice: Achane had six targets inside the 10-yard line, good for 15th in the NFL.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowed per rush and allow 4.4 yards per carry.
They now face a Lions rushing attack that boasts the third-highest EPA per rush and the second-highest success rate in the NFL. Detroit also runs the ball 9% more often than expected in the red zone, preferring to punt on the ground.
Even with Jamir Gibbs touching the 20s, David Montgomery remains Detroit’s best red zone defender, outscoring Gibbs nearly 2-to-1 on the inside. With the Lions posting one of the highest team scores this week – and plenty of scoring opportunities – Montgomery is a strong bet to find the end zone in this Thanksgiving matchup.
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RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
Achane plays an important role in the red zone for the Dolphins and boasts the sixth-highest percentage of touches on plays inside the 5-yard line.
Achane really stands out as a receiving threat in the red zone, as his six targets inside the 10-yard line are tied for 15th in the league. This complements his role as a runner, giving him more scoring opportunities than almost any other player in the NFL.
The Dolphins offense is well-positioned to put up points against a Packers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in yards per attempt allowed, EPA allowed per game and success rate allowed over the past few weeks. At even money, Achane’s heavy usage makes him a great chance to find the end zone.
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Long Shot: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs have dominated this season, ranking first in the NFL in several key performance metrics, including yards per carry allowed, rushing percentage allowed and EPA allowed per rush.
This dominance forced opponents to attack through the air, where Kansas City is most vulnerable against tight ends. The Chiefs have given up the most yards to this position in the league.
Meet rookie Brock Bowers, a target machine who earns hits on 27% of his routes. He was also a red zone weapon, having one of the highest PFF grades in games inside the 20-yard line.
Since the Raiders are expected to throw a lot while playing from behind, look for Las Vegas to exploit this matchup by targeting Bowers against a tight end-prone defense.
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