• Lamar Jackson leads to win his second MVP in a row: The Ravens star is on track to achieve career-highs in total and passing grades, becoming the NFL’s 2024 Defensive Player of the Year.
• Could Saquon Barkley become the first non-MVP since 2012?: Barkley was great Sunday Night Footballbut his candidacy may not be as strong as others.
• Unleash your benefits with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our seasonal fantasy tools, including weekly ratings, WR/CB Matchup Schedules, weekly forecasts, Launch and squat optimizer and much more. Register now!
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches and the 2024 NFL regular season wraps up, some teams are starting to move up into the higher echelon (looking at you, Lions and Bills). In many ways, this is nothing unusual, but what is quite rare is the lack of a clear MVP frontrunner at the end of the year.
While roughly 10 players still feel like they have a chance to win the award, it’s hard to truly determine who is light years ahead of the rest. It may not be ideal for clarity, but it should make for a compelling ending.
Based on the football we’re treated to in 2024, here’s a list of the top candidates for the NFL’s most prestigious award.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
There didn’t seem to be enough buzz around Jackson winning his second straight MVP. Maybe it’s because poor performance against the Steelers in Week 11 or inherent voter fatigue, but that’s when the Ravens star finds himself at the top of the ballot.
Jackson’s 91.9 overall PFF grade and 90.3 passing grade are both best in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. Not only are these marks tops for his position, but they would also be career highs if the season ended today.
That’s right—Jackson has been better than ever, including in his 2023 and 2019 MVP campaigns. He also ranks third in PFF’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) through the 12-week campaign.
The Ravens are 8-4 with 94% chance of making the playoffs and a 50% chance to win the AFC North. Baltimore has a very strong case to be one of the top three, if not two, teams in the AFC. Almost all of this belongs to Jackson, who has not slowed down at all.
QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Your first thought when you read this was probably: But the Bengals are 4-7! Yes, team record inherently plays a role in awards voting, but with Burrow that seems like the wrong term.
As PFF’s historical data shows, Burrow was one of the best defenders of the last 15 years on a team with records as bad as his. The Cincy star is the clear and outright leader in WAR (2.92) among all NFL players, and his 90.4 overall rating ranks second among quarterbacks.
The Bengals would likely have to sneak into the playoffs – something they only have a 10% chance of doing – for Burrow to be rightfully rewarded for the honor. Even if Cincy doesn’t get the job done, the former Heisman winner had a sensational season – and his team’s record isn’t a reflection of how good he was.
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert has already established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but it seems like he’s found a way to somehow shake up his standards this year. His shooting percentage (6.3%) is fourth-highest and would be a career high by 1.3 percentage points. Likewise, Herbert ranks fourth in passing grade (85.6) and seventh in WAR (1.68).
A big part of the MVP race is down the stretch, and Herbert already has a significant advantage over the rest of the field in that regard. Since Week 6, only Jackson has posted a higher overall grade (92.1) than Herbert, during which the Chargers star has made 18 big throws in just five loss-worthy games.
Los Angeles was one of the best in football, going 7-4 and having a 90% chance of making the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. While Jesse Minter’s defense deserves plaudits, this team operates around Herbert, who has found ways to improve his low-level play and below-average receiving room.
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Could 2024 be the first time a non-quarterback wins MVP since then? Adrian Peterson in 2012? It’s more plausible than most seasons, but probably still unlikely. However, if anyone could pull it off, Barkley would have to top the list.
In his first season with the Eagles, Barkley was virtually unstoppable. His 86.8 overall rating ranks fifth among all runners, not to mention a career high, as does his 87.0 rushing rating. Barkley ranks second among all running backs with 776 yards after contact, 29 rushes of 10-plus yards and 16 runs of 15-plus yards.
There are a few caveats to MVP Barkley, however. First, he plays behind arguably the best offensive line in football, which has paved the way for a high rating in the league. yards to first contact.
When Peterson won MVP in 2012, his stats were: 92.4 overall grade, 92.5 offensive grade, 2,314 scrimmage yards, 0.37 WAR. Barkley isn’t quite there yet, but if he maintains this pace (or surpasses it), he has a chance to do something no one has done in 12 years.
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The Bills are 9-2 and are arguably the best team in the AFC, as well as one of the most versatile groups in football. A lot of that has to do with Allen, who was as sensational as ever in 2024.
Allen’s 84.7 overall rating ranks seventh among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 91.8 rating is the best at the position. On top of that, his 7.1% pass rate is the best in the NFL.
However, Allen really isn’t as good as we’ve seen him over the last few years. This year marks the first time he will finish with an overall score below 90.0 since 2019; the same goes for his 75.3 passing grade, as Allen has never finished a year below 81.9 in that category since finishing second in the league. Likewise, Allen’s 1.28 WAR ranks just 14th.th among the defenders.
It feels like Allen has a legitimate case for MVP since he’s been snubbed for the award the last few years. However, if his candidacy is measured solely by 2024 statistics, Allen doesn’t feel like a bona fide leader.
QB Jayden Daniels, Washington commanders
The Commanders have endured a difficult period over the past three weeks, abandoning every one of their matches and bringing their once-high momentum to a complete halt. However, their 7-5 record and 68% chance of making the playoffs rests almost entirely with Daniels, who was an exceptional rookie.
Daniels’ 88.5 overall rating ranks third among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 1.81 WAR ranks fifth among all NFL players. The star rookie bounced back well from back-to-back setbacks, posting an 86.5 overall grade against the Cowboys in Week 12, despite a loss to Washington. In fact, it’s a pretty reasonable bet that Daniels is having the best season a rookie quarterback has had since then. Russell Wilson in 2012—and PFF’s data backs that up.
Yes, the energy around Washington has shifted in a much more negative direction. But if the Commanders do make it to the postseason and Daniels plays at the same level, he should remain at the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. The way he has improved the Commanders’ quarterback play in one year makes him one of the most valuable players in football, even if he probably won’t win MVP.
Highest rated rookies: offense.
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Smith is a name that probably won’t appear on many MVP radars elsewhere, but he’s still having a season worthy of recognition. His 2.12 WAR is the second-highest in football and his 80.6 passing grade is sixth among qualified quarterbacks.
It’s true that Smith has been the victim of some costly unforced errors, especially turnovers in the red zone. But his turnover rate of 2.4% is 11th– the lowest rate in the league – and that’s well below his 3.6% rate last year.
Smith helped the Seahawks to a 6–5 record and first place in the NFC West while surviving a sixth-place finish.– the highest level of pressure. He may not have much of a chance to win an award, but he deserves praise and mention.
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
What detracts from Barkley’s MVP status as any other running back is that Henry has been just as prolific overall. In his first year in Baltimore, the 30-year-old looked almost better than ever. His overall score of 91.9 is the best of any runner, plus a career high. He also ranks first in rushing (91.3), yards after contact (784), runs of 15-plus yards (17) and first downs (60).
Meanwhile, Henry’s 0.11 WAR ranks ninth among all running backs. This is primarily due to his limited receiving contributions (62.4 receiving points and 96 receiving yards).
Henry should remain a viable Offensive Player of the Year candidate, but he’s not even his team’s best MVP candidate. On top of that, Barkley has probably put together a more impressive resume at this point, and it doesn’t look like Henry will come close to Peterson’s 2012 candidacy.
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