• Brady Oliveira carrying Winnipeg’s offense on his back: No RB did more with less blocking than Oliveira, as he gained a league-leading 68.6% of his yards after contact.
• BC EDGE Matthew Bates has been in form since his return: He has the fourth-most pressures in that span (16) and ranks eighth with an 11.9% pass-rush win rate.
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Approximate reading time: 8 minutes
Winnipeg Blue Bombers Vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cat
The week begins with a huge battle between two huge winning streaks. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are in the midst of a late-season playoff push on the back of four straight wins. With three games left in the season, the Tiger-Cats can’t really afford to slip up if they’re going to catch the teams in front of them. QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been the hottest QB since Week 12 with a league-leading 12 big-time throws on just two turnover-worthy plays in that span. Unfortunately for the Tiger-Cats, they have to beat a Winnipeg team that hasn’t lost since July. The Blue Bombers are coming off their seventh straight win, an offensively explosive 55-27 victory over Edmonton. QB Jake Collaros had his best game of the season, passing for more touchdowns (six) than incompletions (five) and a league-best 93.1 grade. Winnipeg has already clinched a playoff spot, but a win here would close out a home playoff game. So the Blue Bombers won’t be rolling for a desperate Hamilton side.
Match to Watch: Winnipeg Interior OL Vs. Hamilton interior pass rush
It’s unfair to pick just one of Hamilton’s elite interior defensive linemen, so we’ll highlight both. Casey Sayles and Dewayne Hendrix both currently have a 90.0 pass-rush grade this season, the highest mark in the league. They combined for 10 sacks and 81 total pressures, the most by any interior lineman combo in the league. Winnipeg’s interior trio of LG Liam Dobson (68.2 pass-blocking grade), C Chris Kolankowski (59.0) and RG Patrick Neufeld (44.8) allowed 11 sacks and 68 total pressures. They have a sub 92.0% pass-block win rate and should be as good or better as the duo of Sales and Hendricks average a 13.7% win rate.
Player to watch: RB Brady Oliveira, Winnipeg
Since Winnipeg’s last loss, a 16-14 overtime loss to the Toronto Argonauts in Week 8, there hasn’t been a better RB than Oliveira. His 87.4 overall grade in that span leads the league, and his 91.0 pass-rush grade ranks second. No RB did more with less blocking than Oliveira, as he gained a league-leading 68.6% of his yards after contact. He forced 25 missed tackles and had 15 explosive runs, two of the highest marks in the league. He forced 12 additional missed tackles and added three explosive plays in the receiving game. Oliveira shines in all aspects of the game, and has firmly cemented himself in the Most Outstanding Player discussion. A strong finish to the season could cement the award for him.
Calgary Stampeders Vs. British Columbia Lions
After such a successful first season, the BC Lions find themselves fighting for the final playoff spot in the West. A Lions loss combined with a Hamilton win would tie the two teams on points, putting pressure on BC to hold off and prevent a crossover over the final two weeks. Calgary, meanwhile, desperately needs it. A loss to the Lions would officially eliminate the Stampeders from the playoffs. This will be the first CFL playoff appearance since 2004 without Calgary, the fourth-longest streak in league history. Calgary got a tough game from QB Jake Maier (78.7 season grade, 16 big-time throws vs. 18 turnover-worthy plays) but he’ll have to play great to win this one. The Lions defense has struggled at times this season, so this could be a good opportunity for Calgary. As long as Meyer avoids CB Gary Peters (84.3 coverage grade), he should be able to find some success.
Match to watch: RT Joshua Coker, Calgary vs. ED Matthew Bates, British Columbia
It was quite an impressive season for Calgary’s right tackle when it came to protecting the quarterback. In 375 pass-blocking snaps, Coker allowed just one sack and nine total pressures. His 98.5 pass-blocking efficiency score ranks first among tackles in the CFL. He’ll have a big matchup this week against last year’s most outstanding defensive player. Bates hasn’t been a dominant performer since returning to the CFL last year, but he’s still very good. He has the fourth-most pressures in that span (16) and ranks eighth with an 11.9% pass-rush win rate. Both Bates and the Lions know he can play much better than he already is, and that’s a scary thought for Calgary’s offense. A big game from Coker will be paramount if the Stamps want to come out of this game with a win.
Player to watch: QB Nathan Rourke, British Columbia
It seems either Vernon Adams Jr.’s injury is worse than they’re letting on, or the Lions are okay with letting Rour get comfortable with playing Canadian football on his own time. But with the playoffs looming and the Lions falling further down the standings, they’ll need to figure it out soon. Rourke hasn’t looked good throwing the football since returning to Canada, as his 57.5 passing grade is dead last among quarterbacks over that span. He has 11 turnover-worthy plays with just six big-time throws and a league-worst 67.5% adjusted completion rate. The bright spot for Rourke and the Lions was his rushing, as he led all QBs with 182 rushing yards and a 91.0 rushing grade. But the Lions’ offense will need to improve throwing the football to return to the elite early season that Adams Jr. led.
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Elks
The Elks loss last week put a huge hole in their playoff hopes, and a loss this week would eliminate them. Edmonton sits two games out of the final playoff spot with just three games remaining. Edmonton has the tiebreaker in BC, but the Elks need to win effectively if they want a realistic shot at the playoffs. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson struggled last week (66.9 passing grade) but has been excellent all season, ranking third in both passing grade (89.9) and big-time throws (22). Saskatchewan has a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a win and the other two games go their way, but even a win alone would go a long way to help it hold on to a playoff spot. The Roughriders have the highest-rated QB in the CFL in Trevor Harris (91.8 passing grade, 78.8% adjusted completion rate) and all it takes is a mistake-free game from him to come away with the win.
Matchup to watch: WR Tevin Jones, Edmonton vs. HB Amari Henderson, Saskatchewan
While Tevin Jones isn’t the first receiver that comes to mind when thinking of the Elks (that’s Eugene Lewis), he’s been incredibly effective since joining the team. He played in just eight games, but his 75.5 receiving grade ranked fourth in the league. His 2.27 yards per route run average actually leads the CFL among active receivers. He’ll see a lot of Henderson, who hasn’t played a ton this season. The field-side halfback played in six games and surrendered 20 catches for 239 yards and nine first downs. He has not allowed a touchdown but has yet to intercept a pass. He’s surrendering an average of 1.03 yards per coverage snap, a good but not great number. He needs to get bigger if he wants to slow down Jones and this Edmonton passing offense.
Player to watch: CB Marcus Sales, Saskatchewan
While Roland Milligan gets all the attention for Saskatchewan’s defense (rightfully so), Sales also deserves the spotlight. The field cornerback actually has a slightly higher coverage grade than Milligan (89.7 vs. 89.1), which ranks second in the CFL. He allowed just 32 catches on 67 targets for 359 yards and two touchdowns. He has four interceptions, two sacks and eight pass breakups. Sayles is allowing just 0.68 yards per coverage snap, and his 53.1 QB rating allowed is the second-lowest mark in the CFL this season. Sales is coming off an All-CFL level season and deserves the same recognition as his teammates.
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