College Football Bowl Games: Betting Market Update

Welcome to PFF Betting market update for week two of bowl season.

This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

If you are not familiar, Click here for a deeper explanation of what we strive to achieve each week.

We will also provide updates for each bowl game, where market dynamics vary significantly and are largely dependent on transfer portal entries, player opt-outs and coaching changes.

WASABI FENWAY BOWL: UCONN vs NORTH CAROLINA

Spreading: Thanks to several entries in the portal and opting out of the NFL Draft, the Tar Heels fell from 4.5 points to 2.5 points favorites. We’re seeing continued support for UCONN as several books have dropped the number to 2.

General: The drop in totals reflects UNC’s significant absence from the bowl game, most notably RB Omarion Hampton, who declared for the draft. Additionally, the Tar Heels will be without a head coach and offensive coordinator. The total currently stands at 52.5 across the board.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

BAD BOY MOWERS PINSTRIPE BOWL: BOSTON COLLEGE vs. NEBRASKA

Spreading: The spread initially dropped below 3 after Nebraska lost three starters to the portal, prompting widespread speculation that QB Dylan Raiola could follow him. Raiola put those rumors to rest, and the Cornhuskers have since returned to being 4-point favorites. Some 3.5’s are still available.

General: The total has been steadily declining, falling 1.5 points since the start of the game. Now it is 45.5 in all directions.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

ISLETA, NEW MEXICO BOWL: LOUISIANA vs. TCU

Spreading: Louisiana trails TCU by 11.5 points, mostly due to injuries, including losing a backup guard in the conference championship game against Marshall. The line briefly reached 13 and then returned to 11.5. TCU, meanwhile, avoided significant losses during the portal season.

General: The total fell to 57 but has since recovered to its initial value of 59.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

POP-TARTS BOWL: IOWA STATE vs. MIAMI

Spreading: The announcement that Cam Ward would be in the bowl game caused a significant shift in the betting odds. While the extent of his participation remains uncertain, the market has settled uniformly at 3.5 across all books.

General: The total has risen to 57, although some books are lagging behind at just 55.5.

Buy/Sell: I will buy the overall move higher and lock in above 57, the most widely available number. However, Kambi stores offering 55.5 represents strong value as of Friday morning. The market may not have fully priced in the implications of Ward’s return.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

SNOOP DOGG ARIZONA BOWL: MIAMI (OH) vs. COLORADO STATE

Spreading: The spread briefly touched 3 before Colorado’s share buyback lowered it to 2.5. Both teams appear to be evenly matched in terms of key transfer portal losses and draft declarations.

General: The amount’s initial move took it down to 42, with further downward momentum from the release of the peak setting the line at 40.5.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

GOWLING WAR BOWL: EASTERN CAROLINA vs. NC State

Spreading: NC State briefly became a 7-point favorite before the buyout cut it to 6.5. Some books have even adjusted to 6.

General: The total opened at 58 and remained steady, with only minor moves higher to 58.5 on some books.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

VALERO ALAMO BOWL: BYU vs. COLORADO

Spreading: The Alamo Bowl is shaping up with some intrigue as Sheader Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter are expected to participate. On this news the spread jumped from 3 to 5.5 and then back to 4. Current market options range from 3.5 to 4.5. Notably, Colorado weathered the transfer portal season relatively well, keeping its roster intact.

General: The total number of books increased slightly, from 54.5 to 55. The number of books is still split between these two figures.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the stock above 54.5 as the market may not have fully reacted to Colorado’s confirmed star players.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

INDEPENDENCE BOWLS RADIANCE TECHNOLOGIES: LOUISIANA TECH vs ARMY

Spreading: Los Angeles Tech stepped forward and answered the call to replace Marshall after the refusal cost them the opportunity to field a roster for the Independence Bowl. There’s not much else to report other than a drop to 16. There’s still 16.5.

General: This amount opened at 44 and remained at 44.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)

TransPerfect MUSIC CITY BOWL: IOWA vs. MISSOURI

Spreading: Despite WR Luther Bearden opting out of the NFL Draft, the Tigers are 3-point favorites. The consensus line is still split between 2.5 and 3, so you can find any side of the key number you like at a reasonable price.

General: There was a slight increase from 39 to 40. In several books the figure rose to 40.5, but we have not yet seen 41 anywhere.

Current portal players (minimum 100 pictures)