- Jared Wehrs shows a very encouraging rookie season: Verse posted strong numbers across the board, pointing to a manufacturing breakthrough in 2025.
- Chris Jones still elite: Even though he only managed five sacks (the second-lowest total of his career), there’s still a lot to like about what Jones put on the field in 2024.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes.
At the end of each NFL season, it’s easy to look at where players ranked in fantasy football, but understanding why they finished where they did is often more important when predicting the future.
For the defensive line, sacks are a huge part of their rotation’s success. Knowing which pass rushers have performed in this regard—and, more importantly, which ones haven’t—can help identify potential candidates for positive regression next season. For the same reason, players who scored too much in 2024 may be potential candidates for regression in 2025.
All expected sacks are calculated based on a player’s playing time (pass rush snaps) and a combination of all pass rush metrics. Pass rush averages are based on three-year pass rush averages, win percentage, and pressure rate.
Understanding the importance of tracking this data is also important because the expected number of bags from year to year appears to be the most consistent metric, more so than any other key throughput metric. Expected sacks are also the best indicator of future sacks, as they translate over the course of a season into actual sacks better than any other metric, including playing time, as shown in the charts below (updated with 2024 numbers).
DEFENDERS OF THE EDGE
With that in mind, here are the 2024 leaders who will lead the way in expected sacks. These players are the best chances to lead the position in sacks in 2025:
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