Over 17 years, PFF has built the most comprehensive football database in the world, analyzing every player in every game in the NFL, college football and beyond. Trusted by all 32 NFL teams and countless others, PFF provides data that helps uncover… real history of each game.
Ahead of Week 18 of the NFL, our media team dug into the numbers to provide key information for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that define every game.
For even more information on the NFL and college games, register with PFF+ and dive into Premium statistics 2.0.
Click here to go to the game:
LAK@HOU | PIT@BAL | DEN@BUF | GB@FI | BAS@TB | MIN@LAR
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Justin Herbert overcame a poor start to the season to finish as one of the league’s most dangerous passers.
Herbert has struggled through the first six weeks, ranking 25th in passing yards per attempt (6.5), 20th in PFF pass rush rate (3.0%) and 26th in passing yards (58.2). . However, he has been a revelation since Week 7, earning PFF’s top passing grade (93.4), ranking fourth in passer rating (7.1%) and sixth-best passer YPA (8.1). ).
The deciding factor in this turnaround was a strategic shift on the part of the Chargers to rely on the passing game earlier in the offense. Through the first six weeks, the team has overcome just 43.7% of early downs, the lowest rate in the NFL. That number has since jumped to 60.5%, ranking fifth in the league.
While the Chargers have found their rhythm, the same cannot be said for C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Houston’s offense has struggled to find consistency, ranking 19th in EPA per game and recording the lowest positive EPA rate in the league at 38.4%. The Texans’ boom-and-bust nature has defined their season, as they rank 10th in plays of 10 or more yards (222) and 31st in games ending in a loss or no gain (108). This instability limited their ability to effectively maintain movement.
A major factor in the Texans’ struggles was their inability to protect Stroud. The rookie quarterback has been sacked 52 times, second most in the NFL behind Caleb Williams. While some of that can be attributed to Stroud’s retention of the ball, much of the blame falls on the offensive line, which allowed a league-high 76 pass defenses unlocked.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has stalled during an ongoing four-game losing streak, failing to hold a lead in any of those games. The key issue was their inability to protect Russell Wilson. During that stretch, Pittsburgh’s offensive line and blocking unit allowed 11 sacks, the most in the NFL since Week 15. keep your pocket clean.
The Baltimore Ravens will look to exploit these issues in their evolving pass rush strategy. Since Week 16, Baltimore has recorded fake pressure on 51% of its snaps, the highest rate in the league. If the Ravens are able to get to Wilson, it could spell trouble for the Steelers offense as Wilson has struggled mightily under pressure. His 43.9 passer pressure rating over his last four games ranks 23rd among the 32 qualifying quarterbacks, and his 2.2 yards per attempt ranks dead last.
On the other side of the ball, Derrick Henry looks to be the deciding factor in this matchup. In the Week 16 showdown, Henry ran furiously against the Steelers, recording seven explosive runs of 10 yards or more, a season-high for the bruising back.
Pittsburgh’s defense struggled to shut him down, committing eight forced penalties on his rushing attempts, the second-most total Henry has recorded in a game this year. His 74 yards after contact were the most the Steelers have allowed to one player this season, highlighting Pittsburgh’s need to tighten up its tackling and contain Henry in the backfield.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
The Broncos could find success against a vulnerable Buffalo defense that allows explosive runs of 10 or more yards at the second-highest rate in the league (15% of rushing attempts).
Denver’s team-running back approach lacks true leadership, but Jahleel McLaughlin has proven to be their most dynamic option. McLaughlin leads the Broncos backfield with 16 explosive runs, ranking fifth among the 46 running backs with at least 100 carries in explosive run rate (14%). He also boasts an impressive 1.8 yards before contact per attempt, the highest among Denver running backs, making him a key player to watch.
Buffalo’s defense excels at masking messages, using this approach sixth in the league (36%). Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will likely be cautious when faced with such views. His average depth against covered defenders is just 6.2 yards, which ranks him 31st out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. However, Nix’s mobility could be a factor as he has shown a penchant for tackling coverage with an 8% scramble rate that ranks fourth among quarterbacks this season.
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The rematch between the Packers and Eagles in Philadelphia comes with significant personnel changes, especially in Green Bay.
Christian Watson’s absence could impact the Packers’ offensive strategy. Watson was their most explosive receiving weapon, with 48% of his catches going for 15 or more yards and 37% of his targets coming on throws 20-plus yards downfield—the second-highest rate among receivers with at least 50 yards in the field. this season.
Adapting to the short passing game could benefit the Packers against a formidable Eagles secondary that excels at defending deep balls. Philadelphia has a passer rating of just 48.5 on throws of 20 yards or more downfield, second-lowest in the NFL, and their league-leading 33% forced incompletion rate makes big plays nearly impossible.
However, Green Bay excels in the short game, with pass catchers turning throws of 9 yards or less, including behind the line of scrimmage, into explosive gains of 15 yards or more at a 12% rate, the third-highest rate in the league. Their 6.6 yards per catch average on short throws ranks fifth, and their 59 forced missed tackles rank seventh overall.
On defense, the Packers will be without Jaire Alexander, which will force adjustments to their scheme under Jeff Hafley. Green Bay has leaned heavily on Cover-2 since Week 13, using it on 27% of its snaps, the highest in the league. The results were promising: they allowed just 5.3 yards per play (ninth) and produced a contested target percentage of 12% (also ninth).
This approach could cause problems for Jalen Hurts, who has struggled somewhat against Cover-2 defenses. Hurts has an 89.1 passer rating (14th among quarterbacks) and 7.2 yards per attempt (17th) against coverage 2 this season and still has 70 touchdowns against coverage.
Washington commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The focus of this playoff matchup will undoubtedly be the matchup between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore, two players with a storied history of intense battles in the NFC South. Since Lattimore entered the league in 2017, he has consistently made life difficult for Evans, holding him to just 15 catches for 306 yards in 12 regular-season games—an average of 1.3 catches and 25.5 yards per game. A key factor in Lattimore’s success has been his physical strength, as he has knocked down 42% of targets thrown his way, compared to the 16% contested rate Evans has faced against other defenders in his career.
Penalties could also play a decisive role in this match. Since entering the league in 2014, Evans has committed 55 pass interference penalties, second only to DeAndre Hopkins (56). Meanwhile, Lattimore has been flagged for pass interference 21 times since 2017, the third-most among defensive backs.
In their Week 1 meeting, the Buccaneers held Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to 184 passing yards, his lowest total in a full game this season. However, Daniels caused serious problems on the ground, rushing for 77 yards, five conversions and four explosive scrimmage runs, a season-high. His 595 scrimmage yards this season rank third among quarterbacks in a single season in the PFF era. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled with struggling quarterbacks all year, allowing a 65% success rate in such plays, third-worst in the league.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
In Week 8, Matthew Stafford held his own against the Vikings’ exotic pass defense, earning a passing grade of 81.5, the highest of any quarterback against Minnesota this season. To disrupt Stafford this time, the Vikings will need to improve their pass rush, which was a weakness in their previous matchup. Minnesota posted a 24% pressure rate against the Rams in Week 8, their second-lowest mark of the season, and failed to record a single pass, one of only two such games this year. This is troubling given the stark gap in Stafford’s performance under pressure. His 90.8 passing grade when he’s kept clean drops to 29.6 when he’s under duress, the biggest drop among qualifying quarterbacks.
The Vikings’ reliance on passes near the goal line has been a key part of their offensive identity, as they rank sixth in pass rate inside the 10-yard line at 58%. While this approach paid off throughout the season, with Sam Darnold throwing 20 passing touchdowns from that range (third-most in the league), it backfired in their Week 18 loss to the Lions. Against Detroit, Darnold completed just 1 of 9 passes for three yards and no touchdowns in 11 plays inside the 10-yard line, including two failed fourth-down attempts. While the Lions boast the league’s best passer rating inside the 10-yard line (58.0), the Rams are a close second at 66.8, presenting another tough challenge.
Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ top red zone threat, failed to convert his only target inside the 10-yard line in Week 18, but he was otherwise reliable. From Weeks 1 to 17, Addison hit all eight of his targets inside the 10-yard line for 42 yards and scored four touchdowns, proving to be a consistent and effective weapon in tight spaces. The Vikings will need him against the Rams’ formidable defense to turn those close-range opportunities into points.
Source link
Leave a comment