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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, players and analysts often rely on a wide range of statistics and models to gain a competitive advantage. These range from basic scoring statistics to advanced metrics available in PFF 2.0 Premium Statistics and models such as Josh HersmeierBuy Low and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) model.
There is always room for new ideas and analysis to help bettors and fantasy managers improve their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that has several advantages over WOPR. Click here for a detailed explanation of the model, my process and its benefits.
Week 12 results
I’m glad that Caleb Williams was finally able to put together a massive game for himself and his successors.
Tucker and Pittman have been on the roster for weeks and finally realized their predicted opportunity.
Dubs scored 54 yards in the first half and scored two solid scores early in the third quarter. However, on the way to what could have been a good performance, he suffered an injury.
BREAKTHROUGH CANDIDATES: WEEK 13
As a quick reminder of how mean regression models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a more reliable indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the remainder by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a balance of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to spawn until one of the following events occurs:
- They will realize their PWOPR potential in the big game.
- Their PWOPR decreases to the level of expected FPpG.
The list of players to watch this week is much longer than last week. As is common with regression to the mean models, some players appear repeatedly due to factors such as poor quarterback play or overall offensive struggles. Here’s a breakdown of the key titles:
Malik Nabers: The newcomer continues to struggle with Tommy DeVito as a quarterback, which is less than ideal for his fantasy value. Although DeVito offers a floor similar Daniel Joneshis ceiling is significantly lower. According to PFF’s consistent metrics, DeVito ranks below the 20th percentile in several key metrics, including clean pocket grade, standard throw grade and sack percentage. Nabers can still have explosive weeks, but they are harder to find. Against the Cowboys’ average defense against outside receivers, keep expectations moderate.
Zay Flowers/Rashad Bateman: The Baltimore duo will have a decent matchup against the Eagles, who provide MOFC (closed middle of the field) coverage at top-seven speed. This usually results in high performance for a wide receiver. However, since Week 8, Philadelphia has posted a league-leading PFF team coverage grade of 91.3. Flowers is well-positioned to see his target share increase, while Bateman, despite a tough assignment, could get at least one major opportunity.
Marvin Harrison Jr./Michael Wilson: Arizona’s passing attack remains a concern due to its low volume. Kyler Murray has topped 300 yards just once this season, and the Cardinals continue to pass well below expectations. However, a pass-heavy game scenario like Allen and Moore’s Week 12 explosion could create new opportunities. Harrison appears on the Coach I Was Open chart, and against the Vikings with a pass funnel, this could be the perfect storm to solve Arizona’s volume issues.
Tank Dell: Dell has a great matchup against the Jaguars, who have been struggling as of late. The only worry is Nico Collins will pump targets.
Justin Jefferson: After a shocking 4.7-point performance last week, Jefferson is poised to bounce back against the Cardinals. In what could turn into a shootout, expect a classic Jefferson performance.
Rome Odunze: Despite falling behind Allen and Moore last week, Odunze had 10 targets and showed his ability to get open. The Lions often provide single-coverage opportunities, and Odunze excels in those situations, generating the second-highest return among Bears receivers.
Noah Brown: Brown had a solid performance last week but remains on the roster due to a difficult matchup against the Titans. Tennessee provides the 10th-best MOFO (middle of the field) coverage, forcing hitters to spread targets. Combined with the team’s ninth-best PFF coverage grade, this will be a tough matchup for Brown.
Quentin Johnston: After a tough Week 12 in which he missed three of his five targets, Johnston is a prime candidate for a GPP restoration. The Falcons, an average defense overall, have become a favorable fantasy matchup for wide receivers, making it a good spot to draft Johnston.
Kayshawn Boutte: Last week, Boutte snapped his goal streak by scoring fewer than six goals for the first time since week seven. This week he faces the Colts, who have the ninth-worst MOFC team coverage grade and the ninth-worst PFF team coverage grade over the past month.
Michael Pittman Jr.: On the opposite side of the Butt matchup, Pittman faces a mediocre Patriots secondary. New England allows for frequent single-coverage situations, which could benefit Pittman as his role grows.
Romeo Dubs: Daubs suffered an injury, putting his status for Thanksgiving in doubt.
Tre Tucker: Tucker is trending upward in terms of separation and schemes, but with Aidan O’Connell As a quarterback, this is unlikely to lead to significant results.
Deebo Samuel: Making his first appearance on this list, Samuel faces a tough Bills defense with a top-five PFF coverage grade over the past month. The Bills’ high MOFO is consistent with Samuel’s role in the offense, and if Brock Purdy plays, this could be a good opportunity for Samuel.
Josh Palmer: Last week, Palmer saw a season-high in targets but missed a wide-open touchdown opportunity. With the Falcons being a lucrative competition for wide receivers, Palmer is in a good position to play back alongside Johnston.
Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert is having a fantastic Thanksgiving game against a Giants defense with the second-worst PFF coverage grade over the past month. Bye CeeDee Lamb dominates targets against MOFC coverages, Tolbert can win, especially if Brandin Cooks remains on the sidelines.
Final Thoughts
As always, not every player on this list will be successful, but some have the potential to surpass their recent PPR average and some have the potential to put up explosive numbers. Thanks for reading!
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