NFL Week 17 Betting: Midweek Market Updates

Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market recap.

This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injuries, weather conditions and failure of public choice can affect the line’s movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to go to the game:

SEA@CHI | LAC@SV | DEN@CIN | ARI@LAR | DAL@FI | New York @BUF TEN@JAX | CAR@TB | LV@NO | IND@NYG |MIA@KLE | GB@MIN
ATL@VAS | DET@SF

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

Spreading: This spread has been moving all week. After opening 1.5 points above consensus, it rose to 4. Some market-leading books raised it to 4.5, but most books are at 4.

General: After the pick’s release, that total increased to 44. It has since dropped back to 42. Some 42.5 are still on the board.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

Spreading: Unilateral action against the Patriots increased that spread from an initial 5.5 to 4. No book had it below that number, but a few 4.5s remained.

General: There hasn’t been much movement, but there is definitely some disagreement in the market about this amount. Currently you can find between 42 and 43.5.

Situational factors: The Chargers’ slight advantage in rest after a TNF game is offset by the need to travel cross-country.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spreading: The market is currently split between 3 and 3.5. We haven’t yet seen any book surpass even one of these numbers. This is a crucial game: the Bengals need a win if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs. This is not necessarily the case, but these “must win” situations can lead to value bets in the opposite direction.

General: This number rose to 48 within minutes of the open, and on Monday morning after the peak was released, this figure rose to 50. We witnessed some market correction, settling at the consensus of 49.5.

Situational factors: The Broncos will have a slight advantage in rest since they played on TNF.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy this move on the total and lock in over 49 on bet365. Size 49.5 is also good and can be found in most other stores.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Spreading: The Rams recovered and found success, as evidenced by finishing at 7 in this game, well off the field goal projection line. We didn’t see any books take it to 7.5, but there wasn’t enough support for the Cardinals to get it back below a touchdown. There are also 6.5 models available at a reasonable price.

General: A slight shift down from 48 to 47.5. A few books started the week at 49 for a time, but that was never the consensus price.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spreading: There has been a pretty significant drop in the rankings to below 10, with Jalen Hurts’ status being a big question mark. The Eagles suffered their first loss since mid-October following Jayden Daniels’ late-game heroics in Week 16. This comes after Hurts left the tournament with a concussion and has yet to clear the protocol. This line has the distinct possibility that Hurts won’t play.

General: The story is similar with the total, given the drop by 2 points from the opening, which was already 1.5 points below the market forecast. If Hurts can’t go, it will be Kenny Pickett again.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Spreading: There is some big movement here as this spread reached 11 and then fell below the 9.5 forecast line. This latest move was fueled by the Jets releasing a pick when they were north of the 10-point dog.

General: This amount fluctuates between 46 and 47.5, so there appears to be some differing opinions in the market pushing this in opposite directions. Our consensus is 47, but 46.5 can still be found in some books.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spreading: Another case of favorites being flipped over by relatively meaningless numbers. There are a couple of books worth 1.5.

General: It fluctuated between 40 and 40.5 before a low-level peak took it to 39.5.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spreading: This line has been stable around the starting number of 8, but we are starting to see the emergence of 7.5.

General: This amount jumped to 49.5 and then settled at 48.5. Other than that, there wasn’t much movement.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

Spreading: Now the favorite, the Raiders are at -1 for their first win since September. Last week’s win knocked the Raiders out of the top spot in the 2025 draft, and Antonio Pierce’s postgame press conference made it clear there would be no effort to improve the draft position. Derek Carr’s return has been rumored this week, but the market clearly thinks it’s noise.

General: The original reading here was 39.5, but it reopened at 37.5 after the Saints lost at Lambeau Field on Monday night.

Buy/Sell: With no motivation issues in the Las Vegas locker room and another week of Spencer Rattler on deck, I’m taking the Raiders at -1.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants

Spreading: After opening at 7, this line has fluctuated throughout the week between 7.5 and 8. I expect 7.5 to be the final number.

General: There was only a slight move down to 40.5 from an initial reading of 41, gradually approaching the forecast line of 39.5. A couple of books brought that number up to 40.

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns

Spreading: The market is making its opinion very clear on QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the Browns move closer to 7-point underdogs. The Browns allowed just 6 points against a Bengals defense ranked 25th in our power rankings. It’s 6.5 across the board, but some books have tested the soil at 7.

General: There isn’t much movement here, but a few books reach 39.5.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Spreading: Potential game of the week. At one point we saw both teams have the advantage, but right now we’re on the PK with very little bias toward the Packers.

General: It crossed the forecast line of 48.5 to 49, and then fell back almost to the starting number. There’s still a lot of 48.5 on the board.

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington commanders

Spreading: The rookie QB battle and the Falcons’ backup led by Michael Penix Jr. lowered that spread to 3.5. This number has since risen again to 4 across the board.

General: The first move of the total was actually a drop to 46.5 before the momentum of the over gained momentum. The market is currently split between 47.5 and 48.

Buy/Sell: I will sell Falcon support and buy Commanders at a price of -4. The Falcons defense has dominated the last two games, scoring multiple defensive touchdowns. These unusual numbers suppress that spread, especially when you consider the matchup with Jaden Daniels, whose 1.76% turnover-worthy play rate is the second-highest of the season.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Spreading: This spread has fluctuated between 3 and 3.5 all week.

General: Similar story overall; All week it has fluctuated between 50.5 and 51. We are now at 50.5 across the board.

Buy/Sell: The Lions aren’t entirely in control of their destiny after finishing in first place this week, but I fully expect them to play like they do. Since the 49ers are out of contention, I’m taking the Lions at -3.5 +100 to Caesar.