NFL Week 18 Betting: Midweek Market Updates

Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market recap.

This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injuries, weather conditions and failure of public choice can affect the line’s movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article. Forecast lines were not available ahead of this week given the uncertainty in team motivation heading into the season finales following the Week 17 results.

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KLE@BAL | KIN@PIT | BUF@NOT | NYG@FI | CAR@ATL | NO@TB | WHO@GB JAX@IND | WOODEN | WHAT@DAL |SF@ARI | SEA@LAR | MIA@NYJ LAC@LV | KS@DEN | MY@CHILDREN

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Spreading: The Ravens opened as 17.5-point favorites, still motivated to win the division. Several books bumped that number up to 18, reflecting the Browns’ ongoing struggle to create an offense since turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Given limited production in Cleveland, that number could rise even higher.

General: The total remains relatively stable, with market share split between 41.5 and 42.

Buy/Sell: I will buy Ravens at a price of -17.5. Baltimore’s offensive firepower should prove too much for this version of the Browns offense to keep up with.

Situational factors: The Crows have the advantage of rest having played on Christmas Day.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spreading: The Bengals must win to keep their playoff hopes alive. While the Steelers may not be able to claim the division title right off the bat, they still have a seed to fight for, which could potentially impact whether they go to Houston or Baltimore. That spread briefly reached 3 and then dropped to 2 after Mike Tomlin confirmed he would not rest his starters. If the Ravens defend the division and the line goes back to 3, I’d be inclined to take Pittsburgh at home with a point.

General: The total increased one point to 48.5, with some numbers still holding at 48. The upward adjustment reflects the high-scoring nature of the Week 13 matchup, in which the teams combined for 82 points.

Situational factors: The Steelers are enjoying the benefit of rest since they last played on Christmas Day.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Spreading: With the Bills in second place, we’ll likely see starters rested, including quarterback Josh Allen, who may need just a little time to keep his starting streak alive. Likewise, the Patriots, who have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, may limit their key players as there are rumors that Joe Milton could see action at quarterback. Neither team has much incentive to win, but New England has a clear incentive to lose. The market is split between 2.5 and 3 points, but laying down 2.5 with the Bills seems more profitable than scoring points with the Patriots.

General: Following the release of the pick, the total number of players increased from 40 to 38, with no further changes since then.

Buy/Sell: Lock in the Bills Moneyline parlay and bets under 38.5 at +195 on FanDuel. If “game one ends” at 1pm was an option, it would be tempting. Expect both teams to rely on the running game, with the Bills getting the win in a fast-paced, low-scoring game.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spreading: The Eagles opened as three-point favorites and stayed there across the board. With Philadelphia locked into the second seed regardless of the outcome, the extent to which their starters will play is unclear.

General: The amount saw minimal change, remaining stable at 38.5 across several books.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Spreading: Atlanta’s odds are up slightly from their opening line of -7.5, and some books are now listing the Falcons at -8.5 or even -9. The increase reflects their still slim chances of capturing the NFC South.

General: The total remained stable with most books split between 47.5 and 48 after opening at 47.5. There has been no significant movement here.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spreading: The Buccaneers opened as two-touchdown favorites with the division within reach, but on Monday afternoon the line dropped to 13. Some books still have the Saints at 13.5. While there is an outside chance that Derek Carr could play, the current market environment suggests skepticism about his availability.

General: The total remained close to the original 43.5, with several books suggesting 44.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Spreading: Green Bay became a 9-point favorite after opening just over a touchdown. Some books suggest a figure of 9.5, but the line has not yet reached 10. It will likely close just below that key number.

General: The total number ranged from 39.5 to 40, and in some books it has now reached 40.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Spreading: The market consensus remains at level 5 with minor deviations of half a point in either direction. Neither team had any hope of a postseason.

General: The total is up two points from the opening tally of 46. The Colts have been on a hot streak of late, hitting the over in their last four games and six of their last seven. Some books still have 45.5.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Spreading: The fourth-ranked Texans opened as 3.5-point underdogs to the Titans. Although head coach DeMeco Ryans assumed the starters would play, he left room for them to be pushed back during the game. That uncertainty has led to the turn coming down to the selection, although Tennessee is still a slight favorite in some books. This dynamic creates intriguing betting options such as Texans 1H and Titans full game, assuming Houston’s starters don’t play the entire contest.

General: The noticeable increase in the total is consistent with expectations that the Texans’ starters will be on the field for part of the game. However, some 38.5 remain available.

Situational factors: The Texans have a head start on the holiday by playing on Christmas Day.

Washington commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Spreading: This line was influenced by speculation about how Dallas would split playing time, including the potential for Trey Lance at quarterback. With Washington needing a win to secure sixth place, the Commanders are 4.5-point favorites on all books.

General: A slight rise in the total rose from 43 to 44, with resistance at 44.5.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Spreading: The Cardinals saw significant progress in their favor after the 49ers announced that Brock Purdy would be shut down for the season. Josh Dobbs is set to start in his place. The market is divided, with some books rated 4.5 while others lag at 3.5.

General: In response to the Purdy news, the total dropped and now stands at 42.5 across all books.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Spreading: Following Sean McVay’s announcement that he plans to rest his starting lineup, the Seahawks are 5-point favorites as of Tuesday afternoon. Despite this, the Rams still have a lot to play for, as a win would secure a triple seed in the NFC.

General: The total fell one point from its opening score of 39.5, although no book has yet dropped it to 38.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the Rams at +5.5 given they still have incentive to compete with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Spreading: Concerns about Tua Tagovailoa’s hip persist after he missed Week 17, leading to skepticism about his availability on Sunday. As a result, the Dolphins fell back to 1-point favorites. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers remains on track to start for the Jets. Miami must win and get outside help to make the playoffs, their chances are currently around 10%.

General: The total fell 2.5 points, reflecting uncertainty about Tua’s status. Some books still give this value as 39.5.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spreading: The Chargers still have a lot to play for and we’ve seen them build to a 6-point favorite. There are still 5.5.

General: One-way action in the over took that total from 39 to 41. Some 41.5s are popping up and we don’t see much resistance to bring that number down just yet.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Spreading: Win and you get to the Broncos this week. Such must-win scenarios can lead to artificially inflated bets. On the surface, this appears to be one of those possibilities, but it’s mostly a reaction to resting the Chiefs’ starting lineup. A loss here would also prevent another Barrowhead situation from returning, knocking the Bengals out of the playoffs. We saw that spread go as high as 10.5, but at that point we saw some support for the Chiefs.

General: A one point increase to the overall figure has left the market currently split between 38.5 and 39.

Situational factors: The Chiefs have the advantage of rest having played on Christmas Day.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Spreading: This is for all the balls in the NFC North. The winner advances to the division and secures home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In this match we saw some back and forth between 2.5 and 3. This should be where it closes.

General: The initial start here was 51, and Sunday night the bet was up to 53. After the Lions scored 40 MNF points, it opened again at 55.5. After that the rate was increased to 57, but it has since dropped back to 56. There are still a few 57s.