NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting: Midweek Market Update

Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market recap.

This article will explain the factors that influence line movement in betting markets, and you will be able to evaluate whether the change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injuries, weather conditions and failure of public choice can affect the line’s movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article. Lookahead lines were not available this week.

Click here to go to the game:

LAK@HOU | PIT@BAL | DEN@BUF | GB@FI | BAS@TB | MIN@LAR

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Spreading: This match started at 3 and saw some movement on Monday between 2.5 and 3. It has since settled at 3, although some books are still holding at 2.5.

General: Strong play on the under saw the total drop from the opening line of 44 to 42.5. At this point, 42.5 is the consensus across the board.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Spreading: The Steelers and Ravens will meet for the third time this season. Pittsburgh opened as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 11, a 7-point underdog in Week 16, and now finds itself a nearly 10-point underdog. The line fluctuated between 9.5 and 10 throughout the week, with the market remaining split between the two numbers.

General: The release of a peak below 45.5 initially caused the total to fall to 43. However, resistance at this point caused a rebound and most books are now at 44. Some 43.5 are still available.

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Spreading: Buffalo became a 9-point favorite after opening at 8. The line briefly touched 9.5 before settling back down to 9. The 10-point spread has yet to show up, although some 8.5s are still available.

General: At the start of the week, the overall reading was holding at 47, but we have recently seen a slight decline to 46.5 for some books. A mixture of 47 and a few 47.5 is still available.

Buy/Sell: I prefer the under 47 bet (-109) available at Cambie sportsbooks (Rivers, Sugarhouse, Parx) over the -120 bet for 47.5 on FanDuel.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spreading: Philadelphia opened Monday as a 5.5-point favorite but saw some swing between 4 and 5 points amid news that Jalen Hurts remains in concussion protocol. That line doesn’t seem to reflect any serious concerns about his availability to play.

General: The total number has begun to decline, with some market leaders now at 45. It seems unlikely that there will be any further decline from this point.

Washington commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spreading: The spread has remained steady with Tampa remaining a 3-point favorite since the market opened. However, the win suggests growing support for Washington as a 3-point underdog.

General: After peaking at 51, the total has dropped below the starting number of 50.5, with some books now listing it below 50. For those looking for a higher number, 50.5 is still available at several widely available bookmakers.

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams

Spreading: After a lackluster performance in the must-win game, the Vikings now face a real toss-up against a Rams team that rested its starters last week. The lineup swung in favor of the Rams, with some books even listing them as slight favorites before Minnesota support pushed them back into the pick.

General: The total number of companies has increased slightly: the market is currently split between 47.5 and 48.

Buy/Sell: I’ll back the Rams’ move and have their moneyline pegged at +100 on FanDuel. If you have access to lottery books, you may be able to find an even better price. Despite Minnesota’s 14-win season, my assessment gives Los Angeles the edge in this matchup.