The Case for Saquon Barkley to Become NFL MVP

• Saquon Barkley became more effective because he had more carries: Starting from the 6th week, Barkley leads the NFL with 150 carries, but he does it with incredible efficiency, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and over 136 yards per game.

• Incredible on-ice ability: Barkley leads all qualified running backs in fourth quarter yards, first downs, touchdowns, yards per carry and run.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

When did the Eagles sign? Saquon Barkley During the offseason, they likely viewed him as a fit for a team already equipped with an elite offensive line and one of the NFL’s best rushing quarterbacks this season. Jalen Hurts.

But even they couldn’t have imagined that Barkley would respond with a potentially historic season in which he would be on track to break Eric Dickerson’s famed rushing record. After a fantastic 255-yard performance, Barkley would be the league’s MVP if the season ended today.

Let’s go over some of the elements that could work in its favor.

Basic Statistics

First of all, Barkley leads the NFL in scrimmage yards with a total of 1,649. Ahead of Monday night’s action, Derrick Henry was the next closest player with 1,281. The rushing yards totals are always impressive, but Barkley ranks among the league leaders in many important categories.

It’s clear that Barkley played at an elite level and wasn’t just carried away by the Eagles’ incredible offensive line. Any running back will benefit from good blocking, but the onus is on him to create extra production by running through contact and breaking tackles. Barkley did so with aplomb and also contributed in the passing game, with 257 receiving yards and 11 missed tackles to go with the above total. Consider also that Hurts scored eight touchdowns from the 1-yard line on quarterback sneaks, which had a major impact on Barkley’s potential scoring.

Volume

Barkley not only produced, but did it while the Eagles increased his workload.

Before their Week 5 bye, Philadelphia had the ball about 41% of the time, which hovered around the league average. After a Week 4 loss to Tampa Bay in which Barkley had just 10 carries, the team decided to change its philosophy and make him the focal point of the offense.

Since Week 6, which spanned the Eagles’ seven-game winning streak, they have run the ball on 56.4% of their plays. The Lions are the only team above 50% in that period. During that time, Barkley leads the NFL with 150 carries, but does so with incredible efficiency, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and over 136 yards per game.

The Eagles also run a relatively low run rate (53.5%, 22nd), so they essentially line up and force opponents to stop their running game. It’s this foundation of their offense that has also allowed Hurts to take on less responsibility while being more effective in the passing game. The Barkley effect comes into play when watching Hurts’ play-by-play.

Through the team’s first four games, 22.4 percent of Hurts’ defenders took play action, but he earned a mediocre 62.3 passing grade. During the team’s winning streak, that percentage increased to 27.1%, and his 88.1 passing grade in those games ranks fifth in the NFL. Barkley’s threat allowed the team to avoid obvious putback situations as much as possible.

Explosion hazard

One of the strange statistical nuggets of the 2023 season is that the Eagles’ running backs ranked 31st in the NFL in rushing rating, despite the team ranking third in run blocking rating. They also ranked just 16th in the regular season in explosive runs of 10 yards or more with 34. Through 11 games, Barkley himself already has 29, which leads all players.

However, these aren’t just runs that barely make it past the 10-yard mark. Barkley trails only Henry with 12 rushes of 20 yards or more. He also leads the NFL with five touchdowns of over 20 yards, three of which went for at least 65 yards.

The Eagles didn’t have a single 20-plus-yard touchdown last season, and eight teams have yet to score a 20-plus-yard touchdown this season. Barkley takes full advantage of the space given to him, hitting home runs. Interestingly, all five of Barkley’s long touchdown passes came in the second half of games, which brings us to the final point.

Grab

A good running back can also serve as a great inside tackle. Whether a team is holding a lead or holding firm in a tight defensive game, the best defenders get stronger as the game goes on.

This year, 42 running backs have had at least 20 carries in the fourth quarter of games this season. Barkley leads this group in yards, first downs, touchdowns, yards per carry and rushing grades.

All five of his fourth-quarter touchdowns came in signature moments. Two of those came against New Orleans in a tight defensive game. Two of them finished their division matchup against Washington, which left the Eagles in first place. The final match came last week and was the exclamation point on his legendary performance against the Rams.

Considering the volume, efficiency and timing of Barkley’s performances this season, he should be squarely in the MVP list as he has made an impact on his entire offense and the Eagles’ ability to win games.