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Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
Welcome to MagicSports Breakdown!
To those who have followed my work in previous editions, thank you for your continued support. For PFF readers who may not know me—which is probably most of you—it’s great to be here. As a PFF subscriber, it is an honor and privilege to write here.
This breakdown can be used for cash games, single-entry tournaments, three-max and high-money tournaments. To achieve maximum GPP points, use recommended players to create a player pool (players are listed in order based on their fame). All passing tempos and metrics refer to “neutral situations” (+/-8 points) unless otherwise noted.
How can I best use the Sunday update?
The Sunday Morning Update offers game-by-game analysis of the top DraftKings slate, focusing on key injuries, advanced stats, trends, expected pace and play-by-play opportunities.
I also provide my “optimal lineups” for DraftKings (“DK”). These lineups (“LU”) consist of 7 of 9 players, which adheres to DraftKings rules against issuing full teams. One is for GPP and the other is for cash games.
In addition to optimal lineups, I also share my personal “core” player pool (usually 16-20 players), which I roll out in tri-max (competitions that allow three lineups per user) and other multi-game GPPs (competitions that allow up to 150 lineups) per user).
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BUF@HOU | MY@NO | IND@JAX | BAL@TSIN CAR@CHI | CLE@WAS | LV@DEN | ARI@SF | NYG@SEA | GB@LAR
EARLY SHALE
CAROLINE PANTHERS AGAINST. CHICAGO BEARS
- CI -3.5, O/H 41
- Expected team results: CAR (18.75), Compulsory medical insurance (22.25)
Pace, play, stats and trends
• Carolina ranks 24th in explosive passes allowed and has given up 13th in that metric. fantasy indicates receivers ranked ninth in attempts against.
• Caleb Williams is 14 of 36 under pressure (3.8 yards per attempt, 39% completion percentage) and 73 of 105 when kept clean (6.2 yards per attempt, 70% completion percentage). Only Jalen Hurts And Will Lewis have a lower PFF pressure class.
• Carolina ranks 32nd in defensive pressure.
• Williams leads the league in deep pass attempts per game (5.8) but ranks 31st among the 32 qualifying quarterbacks in deep pass accuracy.
• Carolina is a top-five pass-blocking team, but will face Chicago, which ranks fourth in pressure.
• The Panthers scored 36 and 24 points. Andy Dalton as a starter, compared to an average of just 6.5 points per game V Bryce Youngbegins.
• Chicago’s defense led the league interceptions per game in 2023 (1.3) and ranks fourth this season (1.3).
• WITH Keenan Allen back, Rome OdunzeRussia’s participation in routes fell from 82% to 66%.
• As expected, DJ Mooreaverage target depth (ADOT) increased from 8 to 15 yards in week 4 with Keenan Allen back while Allen had aDOT of 3.0 yards.
• Moore averages 16.7 expected fantasy points per game but only scores 11.9 fantasy points per game.
• Carolina wants to have the ball (53% passing in the first half of games), but their defense forces them to reach a high passing rate in the second half of games (63%).
• The Panthers rank 30th in yards before contact. Despite the difficulties in the offensive line, Chuba Hubbard averaged 5.75 yards per carry in his last three games, topping 100 yards in both games with Dalton under center.
• Chicago ranks fifth in total EPA allowed, 16th in the run and third in passing offense. That means fantasy where they allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs thanks to five touchdowns allowed.
• D’Andre Swift saw his route participation increase from 43% in the first three games to 58%. He was second on the team in goal share with seven (7-72-0). Carolina allowed its running backs to complete 18 of 19 targets.
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